Image of Ben Bernanke dressed up in a super hero costume might be the last caricature one can imagine, it is very vivid in my mind nonetheless. He may not be an actual super hero but he has a super power, his ability to print infinite amount of dollar. In his 1999 paper, which became talk of the town in recent days due to Federal reserve announcement about Quantitative Easing(QE), Ben Bernanke abhorred Japanese central bank for not doing enough to stimulate the economy and preventing deflation. He laid out a very simple thesis, irrespective of how bad the economic condition may be central bank with its printing press can and should create inflation in the country. Acting on his own thesis, Mr Bernanke is all set to dole out dollars to defuse the deflation expectation in the market.
Quantitative Easing, is weird term to describe a simple action by Federal reserve. In this intervention, Federal reserve print currency and buys medium and long term treasury bonds from the market. The objective is to keep the long term interest rate lower and the hope is lower interest rate will encourage people to spend and corporation to invest again. Once that happens everything would be fine.
I have two objections to this happy ending thesis, first is Chicken and the egg problem and second is prevention is better than cure. Chicken and the egg, currently interest rates in US are at historic low, however corporations and individuals are not willing to spend. Will bringing down interest rate down by another 25bps help corporations and individuals over come there reluctance? I don't know, but we all know currency flow across countries is free and there is more growth in BRIC nations. If some one offer me cheap money, I will rather invest in India than in US. I wonder if Fed loose monetary policy will fuel a bubble in Emerging markets this time. Second, there is a consensus in the market, that loose monetary policy by Federal reserve were one of the biggest culprit for the housing crisis. Cheap loans boosted housing prices to the extent that mere survival of economy became questionable when it burst. However, Fed is not willing to learn from its mistakes. Mr Bernanke is inclined to offer cheap money to corporation as long as he can. The only hope for happy ending is a belief that this time it is different. I am hoping against hope that Federal reserve will be able to control the loose money and the bubble loose monetary policy have fueled by then. May be the paradigm of bubble and bust followed by Soros is the best way for investing.
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Reasonable argument! Meanwhile, in contrast, China has quickly realized that its real estate market is overheating now and so has bumped up its rate. I guess they have learnt a better lesson from United States' housing burst huh... Seems to be a smart move to curb cheap lending and subtly temper inflation. A comparison would add substantial support to you argument.
ReplyDeleteNicely written.
ReplyDeleteI have a question
How is Federal Reserve different from US treasury?
Ah chaman to charlie ka ek aur manifestation. Kabhi bataya nahi tu blogger ban gaya hai. BTW mujhe nahi lagta yaha koi language barrier ka issue hai, you sound more intelligent here than in person :)
ReplyDeleteBTW keep posting such stuff, I do appreciate getting a good of what these economic moves can result in.
Thanks guys
ReplyDelete@cherian ..Good idea dude. I will try to incorporate China in future.
@Gaurav ... Think of Fed as RBI and Finance Ministry as Treasury. Unlike India, in US both are completely independent identities.
@Nishith ... Transformation is on....
Ya I think the name of blog should be changed. There is no language barrier here.
ReplyDelete