Monday, May 10, 2010

Bailout - The new buzz word

My parents taught me the virtue of prudence and austerity. However, if you go by current state of world economy borrow and splurge is the way to go. Today's big relief rally across the world shows how much people love government spending. I agree there were some systematic risk associated with debt crisis in Greece. ECB needed to send a strong signal to market that they can control the situation. However, lining up $1T of rescue package is like adding more fuel to fire. Instead of concrete step to achieve restructuring the debt in troubled countries ECB sought the easiest path of forcing the problem 6-12 months down the road. Markets are now going to price an explicit guarantee that ECB will rescue its member country till there is an eventual default. After the see-saw of the market over last week, I cannot help but notice that regulators are being regulated by market.
In another associated news, Fannie Mae which being a government agency sailed smoothly through the financial crisis when Goldman bore the wrath of public anger, went back to US government asking for additional $8.4 bn. Total bailout cost of housing giants (Fannie and Freddie) stands at $145 bn and current estimate suggest that the total cost of rescuing can jump to as much as $ 500 bn by 2020.
My lesson from this crisis is simple work less, party more, borrow as much as you can, spend as much as you want to, but keep in mind involve everyone around you in the same behavior. If you can achieve a critical mass there is no reason why government will not sponsor bailout for you.